WHILE Scotland saw slower growth in September, expansion was robust and above the average recorded in the purchasing managers’ index survey. And companies, to their credit, stayed optimistic about the prospects for increased activity.
Royal Bank of Scotland chief economist Sebastian Burnside declared he was “reasonably relaxed” about the slowdown in private sector growth signalled in the survey. He flagged “a lot of good, strong fundamentals” for the Scottish economy, noting official data showed its growth had been ahead of that UK-wide in recent times. So far, so good.
Read More: Ian McConnell: Tory Brexit tale of sound and fury but this is ‘unhinged self-sabotage’
But then we get to the prospects of a no-deal Brexit.
Mr Burnside noted Scottish companies’ increasing focus on what such a scenario might mean for them, highlighting this in the context of a dip in manufacturing output signalled by the PMI report. Holding more stock in the UK or in mainland Europe might be considerations for firms if they believe they are going to be affected by new customs arrangements, he noted.
Read More: Scots growth slows as Brexit casts its shadow
He pointed out, for some companies, the concerns will be much more about labour. He cited as just one example fruit growers struggling to attract seasonal workers.
Read More: Services firms face hiring woe amid poor growth
Mr Burnside flagged the need, amid Brexit uncertainty, to plan for a wide range of possible economic outcomes, from relatively benign to full recession. This is perfectly sensible. But having to brace for a vast array of outcomes, some very grim, is the last thing the Scottish economy needs, particularly given it has found its feet after being laid low by the oil and gas downturn. Were it not for Brexit, firms could breathe a sigh of relief.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules here