WHILE Scotland saw slower growth in September, expansion was robust and above the average recorded in the purchasing managers’ index survey. And companies, to their credit, stayed optimistic about the prospects for increased activity.

Royal Bank of Scotland chief economist Sebastian Burnside declared he was “reasonably relaxed” about the slowdown in private sector growth signalled in the survey. He flagged “a lot of good, strong fundamentals” for the Scottish economy, noting official data showed its growth had been ahead of that UK-wide in recent times. So far, so good.

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But then we get to the prospects of a no-deal Brexit.

Mr Burnside noted Scottish companies’ increasing focus on what such a scenario might mean for them, highlighting this in the context of a dip in manufacturing output signalled by the PMI report. Holding more stock in the UK or in mainland Europe might be considerations for firms if they believe they are going to be affected by new customs arrangements, he noted.

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He pointed out, for some companies, the concerns will be much more about labour. He cited as just one example fruit growers struggling to attract seasonal workers.

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Mr Burnside flagged the need, amid Brexit uncertainty, to plan for a wide range of possible economic outcomes, from relatively benign to full recession. This is perfectly sensible. But having to brace for a vast array of outcomes, some very grim, is the last thing the Scottish economy needs, particularly given it has found its feet after being laid low by the oil and gas downturn. Were it not for Brexit, firms could breathe a sigh of relief.