NEARLY three-quarters of leaders of businesses and public sector, third sector and social enterprise organisations in Scotland believe a no-deal Brexit would trigger a UK recession.

And 87% fear the consequences of a no-deal Brexit, a survey conducted for The Herald yesterday at the Institute of Directors in Scotland’s annual conference at Gleneagles shows.

Of those surveyed, 30% said they thought there would be a no-deal Brexit.

Asked if they believed a no-deal Brexit would cause the UK economy to fall into recession, 74% of leaders said “yes”. And 85% think Brexit, under whatever scenario, will exacerbate skills shortages.

David Watt, executive director of the Institute of Directors in Scotland, said: “While the business community is hopeful for a deal, they certainly fear the effects should a no-deal come to fruition, and there is feeling that there is real danger of a recession hitting as a result.”

Mulling the broad ramifications of Brexit, Mr Watt said: “While we are all too aware that there may be economic repercussions, there are also other realities which we might face. Scotland benefits greatly from EU protection. Scotch Whisky, Stornoway Black Pudding and Arbroath Smokies – all protected and steeped in Scottish tradition. If a no-deal hits, much of that provenance could be lost.

“Equally, other benefits that have been enjoyed in Scotland such as research funding could vanish just as quickly. EU research funding generates more than 19,000 jobs across the UK…The consequence of a no-deal and funding being lost will be catastrophic.”

Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has this week forecast a no-deal Brexit would send the UK into a recession lasting more than a year.