THE results of the latest in the closely watched oil and gas survey series for Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce may boost hopes the worst of the downturn in the North Sea is over.
However, they contain nothing to suggest there is any prospect of a return to the boom conditions seen before the crude price plunged in 2014 or that the steep fall in sector employment since then will be reversed.
The positives include the fact the percentage of services firms that are more confident about their prospects in the North Sea than last year exceeded that feeling less bullish by 28 per cent, the best score since 2013.
This may indicate that firms that operate fields are easing pressure on the supply chain after three years of cut backs.
Yet 52 per cent of services firms had not seen any improvement in the North Sea in spite of the partial recovery in the crude price since November. Many are eyeing overseas markets, as investment increases in areas such as Asia.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie’s prediction that firms will cut spending on legacy oil and gas assets to fund investment in renewables highlights the pressure on the mature assets that abound in the North Sea.
It is scant comfort the outlook for jobs is less grim than last year. Firms that operate fields expect a two per cent reduction in headcount over the next year, after a 15 per cent cut in the 12 months to October.
Services firms may grow their employee count by an average 0.8 per cent but that follows a seven per cent cut in the year to October.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules here