FROM what was shaping up to be a disappointingly boring depute leadership race in the SNP after the last few years of political fireworks and elections both at home and abroad, suddenly we have a debate on the cards.

The depute leadership contest has turned into a proxy for the key internal question within the SNP, and the broad political spectrum will be taking notes on what that says about the direction of travel on matters independence. It boils down to timing: when will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

The last week or so has lifted a lid on a tense issue within the party. Even the most diehard of SNP parliamentarians, MP Pete Wishart, has urged a note of caution against calling the vote too quickly. There a belief that losing a second vote would take the question off the cards in Scotland for a long time.

The polls aren’t indicating a win yet, the cautious say, and it would be unwise to hold the vote before there’s a clear 60 per cent in favour of a Yes vote.

But this is hogwash, say the more eager of the party. If it had been down to polls the SNP would never have held the first vote, and look at how that turned out – a huge swing from around the mid-20 per cents for Yes to 45 per cent. The polls will change dramatically once campaigning starts, they say, and the SNP needs to get a move on.

So it appears that, after an apparent lack of interest in the job from some of the SNP’s biggest names – the likes of MPs Joanna Cherry and Tommy Sheppard were tipped as contenders, but neither entered the race in the end – the depute leader debate has settled on indyref 2 as the defining issue.

So far, the contenders are split. Economy Secretary Keith Brown is putting “readiness” at the heart of his campaign (code for ‘we’re not ready’) while Inverclyde councillor Chris McEleny is like a kid on Christmas Eve – he wants a vote within 18 months. The final contender, party activist Julie Hepburn, is playing things safe and urging everyone to trust Nicola Sturgeon’s judgement, adding: “If we continually focus on the when, then I believe we risk neglecting the more fundamental question of how.”

MSP James Dornan, who pulled out of the contest last week to take up the battle against sectarianism in Scotland instead – which doesn’t exactly say a lot for the appeal of the depute leadership post – had tipped 2019/2020 as a realistic timeframe.

What we don’t have much indication of is what Nicola Sturgeon is thinking. It looked like it was game on a year ago, when Sturgeon secured Scottish parliamentary approval to start the ball rolling on a second vote.

The process means that Sturgeon must obtain an official agreement with Westminster – ask permission, in other words, given that Westminster still ultimately overrules Holyrood on these matters – in order for the referendum to be legally binding, which is essential in the event of a Yes vote: there’s no point to a democratic process if the powers that be don’t recognise the results.

But Westminster made it clear that it wouldn’t play ball this time around. Now is not the time, said Theresa May, with Brexit on her mind. It became a question of who would back down first, and we got our answer after the snap General Election in 2017. The UK-wide result may have been a disaster for May’s leadership, but the result in Scotland wasn’t exactly a rounding endorsement for Sturgeon’s, either.

Well, depending on how you look at it. Yes, the SNP lost seats, but it was starting with the unprecedented 56 seats it won in 2015; it was always unlikely the party would retain that dominance. That said, the loss of 21 seats did still come as a shock, and the SNP seemed quick the day after the election to concede that its indyref 2 plans had damaged the party at the ballot box.

And so, in the great staring contest between Sturgeon and May, it was Sturgeon who appeared to blink first, and talk of a second referendum drifted into the distance.

Sturgeon is expected to update the nation on the road ahead in the autumn; the parliamentary approval she won last year in Holyrood still stands, and Brexit will be firmly on the horizon by then.

If Sturgeon chooses not to push quickly for a vote, there’s a risk that its gets kicked down the line, beyond the 2021 Scottish elections. It could backfire: if the SNP loses a pro-indy majority in that election – it currently needs the Scottish Greens to make up the numbers – then a referendum is off the table, no question.

But if Sturgeon decides it’s full steam ahead and it turns out the public aren’t in the mood, the independence movement could feel defeat for the second time in less than a decade.

And so if it turns out to be only an indicator of mood, the SNP depute leadership race might be a bit more compelling to watch than it first appeared.

Just when you think you’re out, they pull you back in.