POLITICS has thrown together some pretty odd couples down the years. Attlee and Churchill; Blair and Brown; Diane Abbott and Michael Portillo; Willie Rennie and assorted farmyard animals. But the Felix Ungar and Oscar Madison Oscar for above and beyond strangeness must go to …. Nicola Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn.
No, it is not another Faye Dunaway, envelope opening, faux pas. Truly, Scotland’s First Minister and the UK Labour leader should just give in and blend their names such is the frequency with which they have been paired in the newspapers this week. Post Brangelina and Billary, “Jezstur” are proving quite the headline-grabbing, amusement-providing, pair.
Their latest round of waving to each from across the political divide began on Sunday when Ms Sturgeon was interviewed on the BBC by Andrew Neil. Asked what she would do if the vote on June 8 resulted in a hung parliament, the FM said “of course” she would look to be part of a progressive alliance pursuing progressive policies. That would be an alliance with Mr Corbyn, as leader of the largest party, at its head as Prime Minister (even though she did not think he was credible as such). That would be a progressive alliance, moreover, in which each side would name its price for co-operation. In Ms Sturgeon’s case, if she was to bow to pressure from her membership, this would be a second independence referendum.
Somewhere out there, Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour leader, could be forgiven for sinking her head into her hands once more. She had, after all, built her General Election campaign on saying a loud no to indyref2. All the woman wanted was to hang on to one Westminster seat. But then again, had not her UK leader been quick to repeat his “no deals, no alliance” pledge early on during a visit to Scotland? So there was really no need for Kez to worry, despite that klaxon sounding somewhere in the back of her mind, the same one that had gone off in March when Mr Corbyn said a second referendum would be “absolutely fine”.
Alas, Ms Dugdale was about to find out again that there is no fool like a north London fool when it comes to sticking his oar into Scottish politics. Interviewed later on Monday on radio, so there could be no doubting or spinning what he said this time, Mr Corbyn pondered aloud what he would do in the hours after he entered Number Ten as the leader of a progressive alliance. While he thought it best to wait till Brexit negotiations were concluded, he would nevertheless “open discussions” with the Scottish Government on a second referendum. No hesitation. No fiddling with his iPad to check policy, as he did on Woman’s Hour yesterday when asked how much it would cost to extend free childcare to 3-4 year olds in England. Oh, no. If Scotland is the subject he is straight in there, ideas flying like kites. And so the familiar cry went up from the Conservatives: vote for us, or get a coalition of chaos led by Labour and the SNP.
The FM, with her manifesto to launch this week, did not have to play the Tories’ game and talk up the chances of a progressive alliance/coalition of chaos, yet she did nothing to counter such talk and, in the case of the Neil interview, she helped to make it the story. Why?
In pondering this odd couple relationship and where it could be headed perhaps we are barking up the wrong Scots pine in likening them to Felix and Oscar. It could be they are more like the scorpion and the crocodile. You know the fable: crocodile agrees to give scorpion a lift across the river having believed the arachnid’s assurances that it would not sting him, for the croc would die and the scorpion would drown, and where would be the sense in that? But the scorpion goes back on his word. Why, asks the dying croc? Because I’m a scorpion, says the croc’s former coalition of chaos/progressive alliance partner. I can’t help it.
Ms Sturgeon did nothing to dampen speculation about a progressive alliance because she believes it is not in her interests to do so. Anything which returns as many SNP MPs as possible, and makes the party a force to be bargained with in Westminster, is a fine strategy by her. After all, did the same plan not work a treat in 2015? Okay, so perhaps those ads showing Alex Salmond pulling Ed Miliband’s strings did play straight into Conservative hands and cost Labour votes in England, but what did that matter to Ms Sturgeon? She had 56 MPs, she had made history. Labour’s problems were just that – Labour’s.
But different times call for alternative strategies. Talking Labour down in Scotland outwith election periods, and raising the possibility of a pact as soon as an election is called, is fine as long as there is no other place for the votes of Scottish Labour supporters to go. That was the case in 2015, but now? It has perhaps not occurred to Ms Sturgeon that Labour voters might be wearying of being treated like voting fodder, their ballots smoothing the way to a second referendum at a time of her choosing. While they may not be able to stomach voting Tory in June, there is a more than fair chance that this time, particularly if they were Leave or No supporters, they will be considering voting tactically. At her manifesto launch yesterday, Ms Sturgeon repeated the claim that “only the SNP can keep the Tories in check”. Not in every case, First Minister. Hell hath no fury like a voter who thinks they are being taken for granted.
Even if the Corbyn-Sturgeon-AN Other dream team scenario was to happen, how long does the FM believe a progressive alliance/coalition of chaos would last? There are Labour MPs on the ballot on June 8 who loathe Mr Corbyn. They will not be too fond of an SNP contingent that keeps him in place as leader. Then there is the general bad smell raised when politicians are seen to be playing psephological games rather than getting down to the serious, more mundane business of making people’s lives better. Can it be Ms Sturgeon does not realise how hard those opposition jibes about “getting on with the day job” are hitting home? If so, she should knock on a few more doors.
Indeed, if the SNP leadership has a moment now that the manifesto has been launched, may I direct their attention to another fable, this one about a lion, a bear, and a fox. Not to give any spoilers, but it is about two big beasts scrapping over the same food, only to be robbed of their lunch by a wily interloper. 
Wise sort, Aesop.