FAMILIES face paying a heavy financial toll to ensure relatives receive “care with dignity” in their twilight years amid warnings of a 10,000-bed shortfall over the next decade.
Research shows Scotland is on the verge of a care home crisis, with providers warning fees will have to rise – or public funding increased – to provide adequate resources for the burgeoning older population, which is set to soar by more than a third in the next 25 years.
Fears are growing about the level of strain on pensions, the NHS and social care services, as the number of people of working age, whose taxes are needed to help pay for services for the elderly, will increase by just one per cent in the same period.
Consultants with financial experts JLL have estimated 10,800 care home beds will be needed by 2026 to cope with projected closures of existing units and the population growth, given current trends.
About 1,100 beds in Scotland were lost last year. Demand is rising yet planned developments in Scotland suggest just 700 beds will be built during 2018.
Herald View: Care home sector needs honesty and more money
James Kingdom, head of research for JLL’s Alternatives team, said: “Even before we take into account the impact of bed closures, the care home sector needs to double the delivery of new beds The election showed what an emotive subject social care and how it is going to be funded can be. But it is essential the Government reaches a sustainable solution as to how social care is to be funded in a way that doesn’t pass the burden to a shrinking working-age population.”
Care providers have demanded a radical overhaul of the sector.
Donald Macaskill, chief executive of Scottish Care, which represents the largest group of independent health and social care providers, said there has to be “a sufficient range of services which will enable people to have real choice in their care”. He added: “Even though more people are living in their own homes later into life, we recognise there will always be a need for residential and nursing home provision. This research shows we need a substantial increase in beds in the next 10 years.
“The investment to achieve this will not come about unless there is an equal substantial increase in what we are prepared at a national and local level to pay for care with dignity. At present, we do not have a significant shortage of care home places in Scotland but with a staffing crisis and insufficient funding, the risk of not having places for people to go when they leave hospital is a real one.” “Scottish Care is seeing an increase in the number of care homes having to close because they are no longer financially viable with rising staff and operational costs. Whether charitable or private, care homes cannot continue to deliver quality care on the rates currently offered by the public purse.”
The latest annual report from the Registrar General for Scotland forecast the number of people of pensionable age will increase by 28 per cent by 2039 to 1.48 million.
The 65-74 group is expected to rise from 0.54 million to 0.68m, while the over-75s are projected to see an 85 per cent surge to 0.8m.
By that year, there will be 397 pensioners for every 1,000 people of working age in Scotland.
Herald View: Care home sector needs honesty and more money
A Scottish Government spokesman said: “Our priority is to enable more people to live longer and more independently in their own homes, which results in fewer people needing residential care.
“This year almost half a billion pounds of NHS spending will be invested in social care through integration, underlining the importance we attach to improving services.”
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