TENS of thousands more elderly Scots are likely to need round-the-clock care over the next two decades, amid calls for a national debate over the cost of future services.

The warning comes as concern grows over a lack of information about how many over 65s will require full-time nursing help in coming years.

A paper published in the Lancet yesterday has claimed that the number of over-85s needing 24/7 care in England will almost double by 2035. Meanwhile, the number of over 65s requiring round-the-clock assistance will rise by more than one-third during the next 20 years.

The research, carried out at Newcastle University, was achieved using a complex ageing and care simulation model which takes into account a wide range of factors.

These include education and health behaviours, chronic diseases and geriatric conditions such as coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, arthritis, cancer and depression.

Similar analysis has not been carried out by researchers in Scotland or the Scottish Government.

However, between 31,000 and 33,000 Scots currently receive 24/7 care in a care home.

Donald Macaskill, chief executive of Scottish Care, said Scotland was likely to see a similar rise to that predicted south of the Border.

However, he said the need for round-theclock care was hard to anticipate due to short-sighted, austerity-driven restrictions to services. Raised thresholds mean councils offer care to similar numbers as in the past, but they are increasingly frail by the time they reach care homes.

Dr Macskill said: “We know many older people are going to need 24/7 care in future.

But because so many local authorities have increased their eligibility criteria over the last five to 10 years, they have created a system whereby people have to be much later in their level of dependency before they can access basic care.

“It is fiscally short-sighted because without any preventative work done the level of care and support they need is a lot greater.”

Dr Macaskill said there was a need for a wider examination of Scotland’s future care needs and the likely cost.

“We have never really done a whole system analysis of what the health and social care needs of older people are going to be in Scotland and not even started a debate about how we are going to pay for all of this,” he said. Most people needing 24/7 care – apart from relatively small numbers of adults with disabilities – are unlikely to live at home. But the recruitment crisis in the care home sector is particularly acute for nursing staff.

The number of over-85s requiring 24-hour care will almost double to 446,000 in England by 2035, according to the study published in The Lancet Public Health.

The study also found that the number of over 65s living without care needs is set to rise by more than 60 per cent by 2035.

The authors, at Newcastle University and the London School of Economics, predicted 80% of over 85s needing round-the-clock care by 2035 were likely to have dementia and at least two other diseases.

They said relying on the informal carers who provide around £57 billion worth of care in the UK is not a sustainable solution.