I SHOULD probably say: don’t look back. Don’t look back at 2018 because this is what you’ll see. The ashes of the Glasgow School of Art. The blood on the floor of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The word “woman” (or “people”) on the lips of Jeremy Corbyn. The word “cancelled” next to the ScotRail train you were supposed to catch. The cold, dead eyes of the last male northern white rhino, who died in March, and the cold, dead eyes of the Brexiters as they tell us that the catastrophe of a no-deal will be just fine. I don’t mean to depress you, but honestly take a look. 2018 was bloody awful.

Except for one thing: at least we can learn from it. There were of course some happy signs in 2018 – Kim Jong-un crossing into South Korea was one; the Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives was another; and there will be many who were cheered by the wedding of Harry and Meghan.

However, surely the best hope at the end of any year is that the next one will be better and, in this spirit, I would like to suggest what we can take away from 2018. Others will see the last 12 months in a different way of course, but these are the lessons that I’ve learned from the year that’s just been.

1 The past is bad for us

History has got us to where we are and I mean that in a specific way: many of us seem to have become obsessed with the past and it helps explain why 2018 looked the way it did. What were the big films this year? Mary Poppins, a remake from the 1960s, and A Star is Born, a remake from the 1930s. As the present has become more uncertain, Hollywood has become obsessed with the past.

This nostalgia fetish helps explains Brexit too, as well as the campaign for Scottish independence to an extent. Earlier this year, I spoke to the historian Sir Antony Beevor and I was struck by something he said about Field Marshal Montgomery. Montgomery’s problem, said Sir Antony, was that he continued to believe Britain was a first-rate power rather than a junior partner of the Americans, and that led to the dangerous idea that the British can make it alone in the world like we did in the past.

Seventy years on, this idea still lingers on and helps explain Brexit and the belief that we can return to go-it-alone greatness. Not only that, some Scottish nationalists think in exactly the same way about Scotland, except they go back even further for inspiration to the 1600s.

2 We are not as liberal as we think we are

For me, this is the one of the most striking lessons from 2018, mainly because of the debate over the law allowing trans people to self-declare their gender. Annie Wallace, the trans actress, told me what it was like transitioning in the 1990s when there was an Aids crisis and Section 28 and trans people being beaten up in the street. She said things are a lot better now but that, even in 2018, trans rights are about 30 years behind everyone else’s.

Which is why the reaction to the Gender Recognition Act from some extreme feminists was the most depressing trend of 2018. The critics said the change in the law would mean trans women attacking non-trans women but that ignores the fact that trans women are much more likely to be the victims of sexual or violent attacks than the perpetrators. And no one’s rights should be held back because of the small chance that some people will abuse them.

Do Scots understand this? I’m not sure. Do they understand that transphobia and homophobia are still common in 2018? I’m thinking of all those slightly smug protesters who waved placards at Donald Trump at Turnberry this year. Their premise was that Scotland is much better than Trump, but I’d like to say to those people: Trump may be a bigot, but is Scotland as liberal as you think it is?

3 We have reached a turning point with social media

If you didn’t delete your Facebook account in 2018, there’s a good chance you’ll do it in 2019, and who would blame you. This year, we saw the site’s founder Mark Zuckerberg being questioned by American politicians about data misuse, but most people’s discomfort with Facebook is down to what it does to critical thinking.

For example, in the summer, Scottish nationalists gathered at BBC HQ in Glasgow to protest against what they saw as anti-SNP bias, but what they really meant was that the BBC was not like the false consensus of their version of the internet – the pro-SNP bias. Lovers of Facebook – nationalist or unionist – do not want objectivity, they want a bias that agrees with theirs.

4 Scotland is not changing in the way the SNP thinks it is

My first thought in 2016 when there was a vote for Brexit was: this makes things easier for the SNP, and many in the SNP thought the same. Indeed, this year, some, including Alex Salmond, were even saying it publicly and urging Nicola Sturgeon to use Brexit to push hard for independence.

But look at the polls in 2018 and you can see the sheet of ice that appears to have formed over them. Yes, they appear to show support for independence marginally up but the expected Brexit effect isn’t happening, or at least it isn’t happening to the extent that the SNP needs it to. Weirdly, it may mean independence is less likely than it was in 2017. Momentum doesn’t always do as it’s told.

5 There’s a lot that still needs doing

Everyone knows why the UK Government didn’t keep its promise to change the law on drones being flown near airports – it was too busy with Brexit – and the same is happening in Scotland. Where’s the reform of council tax? Why do we still have a prison system that Fagin and Fletcher would recognise? Why are people still struggling to find free nursery care?

Which brings us to the last, and who knows maybe the most important lesson of 2018:

6 Casting a woman as Doctor Who is still a terrible idea.