THE Prime Minister’s recent announcement on extra funding for the NHS had been trailed relentlessly in the days leading up to yesterday’s keynote speech in London.
The real-terms annual increase of 3.4 per cent for the next five years was a much-deserved 70th birthday present for the NHS, she said, describing the creation of the health service as the “crowning achievement” of the post-war Labour government. The Barnett formula gives NHS Scotland a £2bn share of this extra £20bn, and few would argue that it isn’t either welcome or needed. Indeed, with rising pressures and an ageing population, many would say the boost was long overdue.
But the real problem for Theresa May came when she repeated her claim that part of the increase will be funded by a “Brexit dividend” – the money saved by not having to pay the European Union after the UK leaves. The infamous “side of the Brexit bus” narrative was, after all, revealed to be unrealistic as far back as 2016.
“It’s very simple: we’re not going to be sending vast amounts of money every year to the EU that we spend at the moment,” Mrs May told the audience. “That money will be coming back and we will be spending it on our priorities. And the NHS is our No 1 priority.”
The Office for Budget Responsibility has long said there is no such thing as a Brexit dividend, and only last month the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said the vote to leave the EU had already cost every British household £900.
Over the last few days, meanwhile, Paul Johnson, director of the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, made clear the so-called windfall from EU withdrawal would not materialise due to the £39bn divorce bill and a host of other economic factors.
Even some of Mrs May’s own MPs rubbished this element of the speech, with Tory chair of the Commons Health Committee Sarah Wollaston accusing her as talking “tosh”.
During questions, the PM also admitted taxes would have to go up to pay for the NHS, something that had most definitely not been trailed in the lead-up to the speech.
So, why was she so keen to try and pull the wool over the eyes of voters by using such a controversial – some may say blatantly misleading – narrative? The answer, not for the first time, lies in her increasingly desperate attempts to appease the radical right of her party. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has notably staked his reputation on the “Brexit Dividend”.
It’s clear the Government is under severe pressure. But Mrs May is playing an increasingly dangerous game by giving credence to a populist political line - especially one that has unravelled so quickly.
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