EVERYONE expects this year’s local government elections to lead to some serious changes in the make-up of Scotland’s councils, but whoever ends up running them will face an intimidating in-tray. A long-term decline in funding, increasing pressure on services, and greater responsibility in a range of areas are just a few of the issues making the work of councils more complicated, less predictable and more expensive. It does not look good.

The Accounts Commission has been warning about this situation for some time and its latest report does not hold back. At the heart of the problem, it says, are two conflicting trends: the 9.3 per cent reduction in Scottish Government funding since 2010/11 and the increased pressure on services, particularly in social care - in eight council areas, the total aged over 75 is expected to double by 2039.

The result of this pincer movement – less money and more demand – is that local government finances are in a perilous state, with councils making deep cuts that are disproportionately felt by the most disadvantaged.

However, the Accounts Commission also says that some councils are still not doing enough to change the way they work or plan for a different future. One extraordinary fact in its report is that only 14 of Scotland’s 32 councils have long-term financial strategies. The commission also says that in many cases there are no systems in place for monitoring staff levels after redundancies or how a reduction in staff will affect the ability to deliver services. Many councils have also tried to limit the damage by increasing charges or focusing their cuts on services that are used more by the better-off, which the commission says is neither sufficient nor sustainable.

The Scottish Government has not helped matters by piling the pressure on councils in a number of different areas. Not only has it made deep cuts to council funding, ministers have also forced councils to take on more expensive responsibilities such as the integration of health and social care, albeit with some extra cash. Government policies such as the council tax freeze, now finally unfrozen, and the guaranteed minimums on teaching staff have also narrowed the ability of councils to improvise and come up with their own strategies on how to cope.

There are a number of ways that councils could help themselves and they should heed the commission’s warning that they need long-term strategies to help them plan and prioritise. They also need to overcome their intransigence on sharing services across borders – or be forced to – and ensure that they are achieving value for money in the services they provide.

However, in the longer term, councils can only do so much in a world in which the Government controls most of their funding. Councils need to be better at managing their finances and cannot ignore the warnings from the Accounts Commission. But ultimately an ageing population means more council services that can care for people and that means more money to pay for them. Councils must do what they can, but there is a fact the Government will have to face sooner or later: councils need more, not less.