THERE was a time, not so long ago, when Scottish politics seemed to be built on two rock-solid certainties: the dominance of Labour across most of the country and the deep unpopularity of the Conservatives. In election after election, whatever the shape of politics in England and Wales, Scotland remained the same: loyal to Labour and suspicious of the Tories.

 

But where are those certainties now after the results of the local elections on Thursday? And with some pretty profound shifts occurring in the foundations of Scottish politics, what does it all mean for the rise of SNP at the expense of Labour?

 

The sad truth for Labour in Scotland is that the results of this week’s elections were merely a continuation of a trend that began with the General Election of 2015 and continued with the Scottish parliamentary vote last year. The local elections simply gives the party the full set of three defeats and confirms their retreat from power in Scotland.

 

To make matters worse, Labour does not even have the comfort of success in England and Wales. Far from it – south of the border, the Tories made big gains at Labour’s expense, with large swathes of the collapsing UKIP vote switching straight over to the Tories.

 

For Labour in Scotland, the loss of Glasgow City Council, expected though it was, also represented a particularly upsetting line for the party to cross – Labour has controlled Glasgow since the early days of Thatcherism and their defeat in the city, though not as bad as some were predicting, is a symptom of the party’s wider problems.

 

What has happened is that thousands of Scottish Labour’s traditional supporters abandoned the party in the wake of the 2014 independence referendum and Labour’s sometimes muddled stance on the constitution has surely made matters worse. In an attempt to carve out a distinctive policy on the issue, Kezia Dugdale promoted the idea of a federal UK, but it failed to gain any traction and the party looks like it has ended up falling between the cracks of the constitutional debate. And with yet another defeat under her belt, how much longer can Ms Dugdale survive?

 

As for the Tories, the idea that they are reviving in Scotland can no longer be dismissed. Indeed, they have more than doubled their representation and have made some remarkable breakthroughs in areas once seen as no-go: Ferguslie Park in Paisley for example and Shettleston in Glasgow.

 

Some of the Conservative revival is a direct result of the collapse of Labour; there will also be elements of the Leave vote from the EU referendum that felt at home voting Conservative. And there was undoubtedly some tactical voting at work from voters who wanted anyone but the SNP.

 

However, the Tory success, in a political landscape increasingly defined by the single issue of independence, is also in large part down to a relentlessly simple message from Ruth Davidson that focused on opposition to a second referendum on independence, even though it was a local election. So successful has it been that we are now at the point where the results of the election could signal the re-emergence, in a new form, of two-party politics in Scotland, with the SNP and the Tories the main players instead of Labour and the SNP.

 

But what does it all mean for the SNP and their immediate prospects? Clearly, some in the party will worry that the bedrock areas for them no longer look as solid as they once were. The results are also a reminder that it will be very hard for the SNP to repeat what they achieved at the General Election two years ago, although we should be cautious about reading too much into the local election results - the single transferable vote system makes it very difficult for a party to win an outright majority, particularly in the big cities.

 

However, there is still a lot in the results for Nicola Sturgeon to mull over. The First Minister’s hope had been that the results of the EU referendum, the prospect of a hard Brexit and then Holyrood’s vote for a second referendum would build momentum and support for the SNP. But there is nothing in the results of the local elections to suggest that such a strategy is working particularly well. Ms Sturgeon may also wish to consider whether the results reflect voters’ views on her record in government, especially on the NHS and education.

 

On the other hand, there is a chance that the revival of the Conservatives and a Tory victory at the General Election next month, on the back of a collapse in the UKIP vote, will play into Ms Sturgeon’s hands. The First Minister undoubtedly has some serious thinking to do about her prospects of winning a second independence referendum, but she may also think that a Tory government could help advance her cause. With a right-wing Prime Minister in No 10, supported by a reviving Conservative Party in Scotland, Ms Sturgeon will ask, and keep on asking, one simple question: is this the kind of government that Scotland wants?