IF you had to choose one word to describe the current mood of the nation, you couldn’t go wrong with “uncertain”. Since the Brexit vote the various governing administrations of these islands, businesses and individual families have all been grappling with questions around what the future will hold. Yet still, 15 months on from the divisive referendum, it appears no one is much further forward, not least the Tory Government that set us on this road in the first place.
The Herald has been consistent and vocal in its criticism of the Prime Minister’s continued lack of clarity on the direction of travel and the damage this confusion is already doing to both the UK and Scottish economies.
In its latest economic commentary, the respected Fraser of Allander Institute - the independent research body based at Strathclyde University – strongly echoes our position, outlining how uncertainty over Brexit risks putting a long-term brake on the fragile Scottish economy, which despite promising employment figures, continues to struggle.
The situation is compounded, says the Institute, by the Government’s lack of clarity on what specific powers will be transferred from Brussels to Holyrood after the UK leaves the European Union in March 2019. Definition is vital, their report makes clear, so that business can start discussing the new landscape with the Scottish Government, with a view to putting in place measures that will create growth and improve productivity.
The intervention is extremely timely, of course, with Nicola Sturgeon having only yesterday set out 38 amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill, to avoid what she has described as a “power grab” of devolved responsibilities, including farming, fisheries and the environment. UK ministers deny that accusation, but have hinted a new UK-wide legislative framework is their priority.
And since the First Minister has made it clear she will not recommend that Holyrood consents to the Bill – part of the ratification process – until the dispute is resolved, not for the first time there is deadlock.
Such stasis between the two Governments is frustrating indeed. But as highlighted by the Fraser of Allander report, surely most damaging of all is the continued failure on the part of the UK Government to clarify its intentions. This apparent lack of any clear plan, or reluctance to communicate one, can be seen throughout the Brexit process, of course, as the woeful lack of progress elsewhere in the negotiations betrays.
And while the intrigue around Boris Johnson’s wearisome “will he or won’t he” play for the top job continues, the Prime Minister and her team refuse or are unable to give clarity for business on the issues that could ultimately make or break the economy.
With this in mind, it is imperative that she makes clear her Government’s intentions on these matters as soon as possible - and that includes the future shape of devolution for Scotland. Our potential to prosper depends on it.
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