THIS is reported to be the year in which Holyrood will issue the Growth Commission report compiled by Andrew Wilson. Here are points that readers can check on the impact on the Scottish economy.
The first is the policy to phase out the use of gas and replace the energy source with electricity. Note that, as electricity is three times more expensive, there will be a dramatic increase in Scottish bills.
How will this affect the economies of the 35 per cent of Scots living in fuel poverty when Kevin Stewart, Minister for Local Government and Housing, is only bringing forward a bill on fuel poverty sometime in 2018?
The next point concerns the wall of silence at Holyrood as to whether the ban on gas includes the import of American shale gas to the plant at Grangemouth. The silence from all 129 MSPs indicates a shoogly peg on such imports, so will there be an impact on Scottish GDP if the work is transferred to Norway ?
If the Growth Commission proposes the demise of the UK grid similar to proposals for bringing the Transport Police and National Rail under Holyrood control, then the current arrangement whereby 92 per cent of the green levies are paid by English and Welsh consumers could cease and the Scottish contribution would soar to 55 per cent of the bill.
That would double electricity bills, leading to penury for those in fuel poverty. What would be the effect on Holyrood GDP ?
The Scottish grid has around 12,000 MW of installed generation. In addition there is 3,000 MW of plant that has cleared the planning process and a further 3,500 MW of plant that the Energy Minister proposes to approve by 2020.
However, from Easter to the schools autumn break the average Scottish demand is only around 2,000 MW which means that, by 2020, there will be 16,000 MW of generation sitting idle for 4,000 hours a year.
At an installation cost of £80 billion what will be the constraint payment bill imposed on the 35 per cent of Scots in fuel poverty and will the Growth Commission analyse the impact on GDP?
Ian Moir,
79 Queen Street,
Castle Douglas.
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