THE qualifying period for the 2018 Commonwealth Games has just opened, and 15 months from now the Gold Coast Games will be in full swing.
Historically, Commonwealth Games in the "wrong" season for Scotland rarely match aspiration, which is daunting. Preparing through the winter has proved problematic. The Edinburgh Games of 1970, then Scotland's most successful ever, were followed by Christchurch (which opened on January 24). Scotland had won 25 medals (six gold) in Edinburgh. In New Zealand the tally fell to 19 (three gold).
Commonwealth Games Scotland say that, on the back of the outstanding Glasgow 2014 performance, they are aiming for their most successful overseas Games - a big ask given high-profile retirements and the Australian hosts dropping judo, Scotland's most successful sport in 2014.
Our best overseas Games was 2006, in Melbourne, with 29 medals - one fewer than four years earlier in Manchester, but with five more golds. Staged in the second half of March, Melbourne was the first overseas venue when Scotland had enjoyed a full four-year cycle of lottery support.
The boycott-ravaged 1986 Edinburgh Games (33 medals) was followed by Auckland (22), which started in late January. The athletics haul in Auckland was five medals: one gold, two silver, three bronze. A lengthy acclimatisation and pre-Games competition Down Under showed the lessons of Christchurch 16 years earlier had been learned. After four gold, two silver and two bronze in 1970 there was just just a solitary silver in Christchurch.
Preparation - and the lottery - has been key to driving improved performance. Scotland's planned 300-strong squad, including officials, will spend three weeks acclimatising in customised sport-specific facilities on the Gold Coast, two hours north of the Games venue. England, with double the size of Scotland's contingent, are spending £4m on preparations.
There were 17 sports in Glasgow, and one more in Gold Coast. Basketball is reintroduced, while women's sevens and beach volleyball make their debut.
Scotland's 2014 cycling medallists, Neil Fachie (gold) and Katie Archibald (bronze), have matured dramatically with Paralympic and Olympic titles respectively, while Callum Skinner took Olympic gold and silver in Rio. So high hopes there, although triple Paralympic champion Aileen McGlynn (double silver in 2014) has since retired. A potential complication is next year's world track championships. They are in April this year, with next year's dates still to be determined. If they should also be in April, that would clash with Gold Coast, and pressure could be put on the riders, with UK lottery funding a bargaining chip. In 2010, a fixture clash caused Sir Chris Hoy to miss the Delhi Commonwealths.
The 2014 swim gold medallists: Hannah Miley, Ross Murdoch, and Daniel Wallace are still in action, but Robbie Renwick, a medallist in the last three Commonwealths, retired after Olympic relay silver in Rio, and departure may also be imminent for 2012 Olympic silver medalist Michael Jamieson who failed to make the Rio team.
The 2014 gold-medal boxers, Charlie Flynn and Josh Taylor, have turned pro, and badminton mixed doubles bronze-medal pair, Imogen Bankier and Robert Blair, have now retired. But European and Commonwealth singles silver medallist Kirsty Gilmour is currently fifth, despite being hampered by a knee injury sustianed in Rio. She will be a force again.
Visually impaired sprinter Libby Clegg, our only athletics gold medallist in 2014, has since won double Paralympic gold, and there has been a major breakthrough for colleagues Laura Muir (world No.1 at 1500m), Andrew Butchart (5000m), Eiiidh Doyle (400m hurdles) and Lynsey Sharp (800m). All Olympic finallists they have legitimate hopes of Gold Coast medals. Qualifying performances must by done by October 31 this year - dangerously early in my view - but the World Indoor Championships at the beginning of March next year will be an important indicator of form.
Unless there is gymnastics improvement, matching 2014 will be hard. Adam Cox, from the silver-medal all-around men's squad, has retired, and none of the other four members, including individual gold medallists Daniel Keatings and Daniel Purvis, gained Rio selection.
Shooting, with the McIntosh sisters, and bowls, always seem able to deliver, but beating the 29 medals of Melbourne 2006 may prove an aspiration too far, especially given serial failure in team events.
No Scottish team sport has ever won a Games medal – or even been involved in a match which might have won them one. They have been a costly and over-resourced dead weight.
The Scotland men's sevens squad was eighth in the Commonwealth last year, and the women ninth. They must break into the top six by the end of this World Series season to meet CGS Scotland selection criteria. Yet if neither team gains a top-six finish then the team with the higher Commonwealth ranking will still be chosen for Gold Coast. That's a reward for failure.
Basketball is an eight-team competition, for which FIBA and the Commonwealth Games Federation select teams. Scotland is well short of the required top-eight status, but by April they need two wins against a top-eight nation or a non-Commonwealth nation ranked higher that a top-eight Commonwealth country. Again, if neither team achieves that, whichever sex is the better ranked will still be allowed to go.
Hockey (men currently tenth, women seventh) need a top-six Commonwealth ranking by April, though there are other, tougher ways to qualify. The netball team, currently tenth in the Commonwealth, has to reach sixth by February next year.
Perhaps the "tough love" funding policy, proven ruthlessly successful by UK Sport, is required to bring team sport up to the mark. Rewarding mediocrity has proved a failure.
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