BARRING some unforeseen upset, Brendan Rodgers will take to the stage in a Glasgow hotel this evening to accept the award as PFA Scotland’s Manager of the Year. Almost as much of a nailed-on certainty is the likelihood that he will modestly deflect any praise for his endeavours on to others. Anyone having to take a drink any time Rodgers thanks his players is likely to find themselves comatose and under the table before they have even served dessert.

There will be an element of self-effacing humility behind his words, but more than a grain of truth, too. After all, even the most successful manager is nothing without his players. That, in turn, prompts the age-old conundrum: do good managers make players better? Or is it the players who make the manager?

Perhaps only those inside the dressing room will know the answer to that as so much of what goes in to being a manager takes place away from prying eyes. The fans get to watch their manager stand on the touchline on a matchday, observe his decorum, witness his tactics, and see the changes he deigns to make. The rest they see through the prism of the media who, in turn, catch only glimpses of a manager’s life: the TV crews and photographers who are granted brief access to capture training footage once a week, and the journalists who get to ask questions before and after every match.

The rest of what a manager does remains something of a mystery as only his inner sanctum and the players are privy to those moments; the motivational team talks, the tactical discussions, the man management, the scouting, the training drills, the meetings and the rest. Like the old iceberg comparison, only a tiny proportion of what a football manager does is ever visible to most people.

It is why there is an argument every year over the choices whenever the shortlist for the manager of the year awards is announced. The truth is this: nobody really knows exactly what they are voting on. After all, if fellow coaches and the press –the football writers will announce their own winners in a few weeks’ time – can only see a tiny fraction of what any manager does, then how can they decide who has had a good season and who not?

The most obvious factor in choosing, then, is results. Again, there is an argument that much of that can be put down to the performances of the players, but managers who win leagues or reach cup finals tend to get recognition for doing so. Another, perhaps more objective, criterion is a notable improvement in a team’s form. So if a manager begins with his team expected to finish in the bottom half of the table and by the end of the season they have reached the top half, then it is fair to say his influence has been positive.

Surpassing expectation is probably why Partick Thistle’s Alan Archibald and Morton’s Jim Duffy have both made the shortlist alongside Rodgers and Aberdeen’s Derek McInnes.

The third factor focuses on situations where a manager has done something remarkable that leaves little doubt that he has left his mark in a positive fashion. In Rodgers’ case it is the visible improvement in performances that he has drawn out of players whose careers appeared to have stalled under the previous manager. That, and his attention to every little detail, are why the Northern Irishman ought to pick up the award tonight, never mind the fact that he is on course to become only the third Celtic manager to complete a domestic treble. And all in his first season in Scottish football.

This has been the perfect posting for Rodgers in so many ways and it is hardly a surprise that the best managers always gravitate towards the top jobs. After all, they will feel they have merited that opportunity. But at the risk of sounding like someone pitching an idea for a dreadful reality TV show, perhaps only when a manager is removed from the upper echelons of the game and placed in less salubrious surrounds can their true worth be proven. What if Pep Guardiola had offered to take over at Bradford City rather than Bayern Munich when he decided to seek out a new challenge after leaving Barcelona? With a lesser standard of player, poorer facilities and none of the usual perks, could he still have turned an average squad into league winners?

What if Jose Mourinho had taken over at Accrington Stanley? Carlo Ancelotti tried his luck at Luton Town? Or if Rodgers decides he’s had enough at Celtic and offers a salvage job at Cowdenbeath? It would be the most transparent way for any manager to demonstrate that their talent and capabilities can be adapted to all situations. Of course none of that will ever come to pass. And more’s the pity. Instead managers will continue to work mostly in mysterious ways.