Welcome to another week. It’s going to be a good one. The SNP is in crisis, there will be a no-confidence vote in Humza Yousaf, and the fate of the First Minister will probably be decided by the views, whims and prejudices of just two or three people. So let’s sift through the evidence, the tantrums and the tears, and look at clues to what’s going to happen to Mr Yousaf (warning: not pretty).

1: The letter

“Hiya Humza. Ash Regan here. Remember me? The one you said was ‘no great loss’ to the SNP? Well, I’m just dropping you a line to list the demands that I (or let’s face it: Alex) am making before I decide what I’m going to do. First demand: a Declaration of Scottish Sovereignty. Second: full support for the Cass Review. And third: competent government. Good luck with those (especially the third one eh? ha ha). I look forward to your reply.”

I am summarising of course, but that’s effectively the letter the Alba MSP Ash Regan sent to the First Minister this week, and it’s our first clue to the state of nationalist politics and the fate of Mr Yousaf. First, the letter highlights the primacy of trans and women’s rights as one of the issues that’s led us here (Mr Yousaf is going to have to change tack or he’s toast). Secondly, Ms Regan’s idea of a Declaration of Scottish Sovereignty (which no one thinks has any traction) highlights the lack of realistic options on independence. And thirdly, competency in government is really starting to bite for the SNP (more of which later).

2: The second letter

“Dear everyone. Humza Yousaf here. You know how I’ve been slagging you off all these years as dirty Tories, or red Tories, or traitors to Scotland? Well, that’s all water under the bridge now isn’t it (and I’m in trouble here guys!) So why don’t we all get together for some talks (tea and custard creams on me) and talk about how we’re going to save my skin. Hope that sounds good to you. See you then!”

I am summarising again of course, but that’s effectively the letter the First Minister sent to the opposition leaders, inviting them for “constructive talks” about how they could cooperate now that the SNP is in minority government. Douglas Ross’s reply was effectively a big Tory raspberry but the point is that Mr Yousaf needed to send the letter at all. Minority government can work, and has worked, in Scotland, but the letter demonstrates just how reduced the First Minister’s authority is.

3: The Greens

Oh but they were angry weren’t they? I haven’t seen Patrick Harvie this angry since someone asked him what the T in LGBTQIA+ stood for, but their anger is significant this time. Mr Harvie thought he could get his party to support the Bute House Agreement, but he also clearly didn’t for a minute think that the First Minister would make the strategic mistake of dumping the Greens first (rather than having a vote of the SNP membership for example). And it is a strategic mistake. As Mr Harvie said when he addressed the First Minister in Holyrood this week: who does he think will support him now? It's a good question and one that goes to the heart of what Mr Yousaf did. Strategically, he made a mis-step. He screwed up. And it will probably prove fatal.

4: The polls

The thing about Nicola Sturgeon was she faced lots of crises too, but she, and her party, were popular. Not so Mr Yousaf. According to Ipsos, under Humza Yousaf, the SNP’s overall ratings among the public have declined from a net favourability rating of -1 in March 2023 to -10 one year later. Mr Yousaf also receives a net negative rating of -15, with 29% holding a favourable view of him compared to 45% who have an unfavourable view of him. In other words, the First Minister just doesn’t have the voter appeal that might otherwise save him in a crisis.

5: The aura

Some more about Mr Yousaf’s appeal. I was speaking to someone who’s often in those Holyrood huddles you see round the First Minister when journalists bark out questions and try and get a quote of the day, and what the person said was interesting. In the old days, they said, under Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister had a distinct presence and was very much in control despite the journalists’ best efforts but that isn’t the case with Mr Yousaf. He lacks presence, he lacks authority, and journalists (and the people in his own party) can smell that kind of stuff and it’s not good.

Read more: Mark Smith: Reactionary and right-wing? Don’t let the Greens’ little tantrum fool you

Read more: Mark Smith: A good way to use Scotland’s land. So why aren’t we doing more of it?

6: The ex-leader

Uh-oh. We’re in trouble now, here comes the ex-First-Minister-but-one Alex Salmond and he has a proposal to make. The Alba party, he says, might be persuaded to support Mr Yousaf in the no-confidence vote if the SNP agrees to an electoral pact in which they stand aside for Alba in some seats. Mr Yousaf almost immediately ruled out the idea (because he had to) but that isn’t the point. The point is that Mr Salmond, and Ms Regan, and Mr Harvie, and everyone basically, feels emboldened to talk about what Mr Yousaf has to do to win the vote. They are leading the debate, they are potentially masters of his fate, not Mr Yousaf, and it’s another sign I’m afraid, another bell tolling, for the state of the First Minister’s authority.

7: The record

Finally: what may turn out to be the most significant clue to Mr Yousaf’s fate, if not now then certainly soon: the way voters have started to think differently under his leadership. There was a time under Nicola Sturgeon when – weirdly and against all the usual rules of politics – the actual record of the government didn’t appear to matter that much. Schools worse. Hospitals worse. Roads worse. Heh ho, we like Nicola Sturgeon, we want independence for Scotland, so we’re going to vote SNP anyway.

But crucially, that’s all changed. What we can now see from the polls is that voters, including some who’ve voted SNP in the past, are starting to connect what’s going on around them (schools worse, hospitals worse, roads worse) in a way they didn’t before and are willing to vote for other parties (mainly Scottish Labour).

Now ordinarily, with a Scottish election still two years away, none of this would matter that much (provided things start to turn around) but in a crisis like this week’s, it does. If the SNP think they have a vote-winning leader, they’ll enthusiastically back him, but if they don’t, they’ll ditch him (maybe not this week, maybe not next week, but soon).

As it happens, Mr Yousaf may survive the vote of no-confidence (let’s see what the Greens actually do in the end). But afterwards, the underlying trends, the clues to his fate, will still be there. How long does it take for a leader’s wounds to finish him off?